According to Central Statistics Office data, the y-o-y increase in GDP at constant (1995) market prices in 2001 was 5.7% while the corresponding increase in GNP was 4.6%.

The CSO has published estimates of GDP and GNP for the first quarter of 2002. According to these figures, which are provisional, there was a y-o-y increase of 2.9% in GDP at constant market prices in Q1 2002. GNP at constant market increased by 1.6% in the same period.

There was a surplus of €209 million on the current account of the Balance of Payments in the second Quarter of 2002. This compares with a deficit of €59 million in Q2 2001. The surplus in Q2 2002 was due to credit balances under the Merchandise Trade and Current Transfers headings, which more than offset the deficits under the Services and Income headings. The current account deficit for the year 2001 was €345m compared to a surplus of €53m for 2000.

The 2001 Exchequer Surplus was €650 million which compares with the 2001 Budget target of €3,222 million. The Exchequer Surplus in 2000 was €3,178 million.

The estimated outturn for the General Government Balance (GGB) in 2001 is a surplus of 1.5% of GDP on an ESA 95 basis. The 2002 projected outturn for the GGB is in the region of -0.6% of GDP (based on the end-September 2002 Exchequer position).

An advance release calendar for central and general government - one quarter in advance - is available on the IMF Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (details below).

Ireland’s General Government Debt to GDP ratio was 39% at end-2000. The outturn for end-2001 is 36.4% while the forecast for end-2002 is 33.8%.

The latest Quarterly National Household Survey indicates that in the twelve months to the quarter March to May 2002:

- Employment increased by 33,400 or 1.9%;

- Unemployment rose by 11,800 to a rate of 4.2%;

- The labour force increased by 45,100 or 2.5%;

- The long term unemployment rate remained unchanged from March to May 2001 at 1.2%.

The Live Register figure for September 2002 was 161,432. This is a decrease of 12,131 on the figure for August and an increase of 20,882 on the figure for September 2001. The underlying seasonally adjusted figure in September 2002 was 162,900 which represents an increase of 21,000 on the figure for September 2001.

Figures in the QNHS indicate that employment in construction rose by just 900 or 0.5% in the 12 months to the quarter March to May 2002. The CSO’s index of "Employment in Construction" release indicates that industrial employment decreased by 2.9% y-o-y to August 2002.

The latest QNHS indicates that employment in production (other than construction) decreased by 14,200 or 4.5% in the twelve months to the quarter March to May 2002. The CSO release "Industrial Employment: Preliminary Estimates" indicates that industrial employment decreased by 10,300 in the twelve months to June 2002.

The latest CSO release Banking, Insurance and Building Societies: Employment and Earnings indicates that employment in banking, insurance and building societies increased by 1,600 in the twelve months to March 2002. Figures in the QNHS indicate that employment in "financial and other business services" increased by 10,800 or 4.9% in the 12 months to the quarter March - May 2002.

The latest CSO Statistical Release on Public Sector Employment and Average Earnings indicates that 231,600 were employed in the public sector (excluding health), an increase of 11,200 in the year to March 2002. Figures released in the QNHS indicate that employment in public administration and defence increased by 8,800 or 10.9% in the 12 months to the quarter March - May 2002, and employment in education and health increased by 21,700 or 8.8% over the same period.

The latest figures from the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment show that the number of notified redundancies in 2001 was 19,828, an increase of 48.9% on the figure of 13,316 for 2000. Their latest figures indicate that redundancies in September 2002 were 1,561 or a rise of 4.2% on the corresponding figure of 1,498 in September 2001. The 25,048 redundancies in the twelve months to September 2002 compares with 24,985 redundancies in the twelve months to August 2002, an increase of 0.25%.

At end August 2002, there were 32,038 people in FÁS Employment Schemes (incl. 26,861 on Community Employment). There were a further 11,094 on training programmes/schemes for the unemployed and jobseekers. The corresponding figures for those in FÁS Employment Schemes for July was 32,499 (incl. 27,420 on Community Employment) and 12,334 were attending the various other training programmes/schemes. Due to administrative changes in FÁS, figures for September have been delayed. Figures for September and October will be updated at the end of November.

The latest release shows that average weekly industrial earnings in the year to June 2002 increased by 6.3%, reflecting an increase of 8.8% in the hourly rate and a decrease of 2.6% in the number of hours worked.

The corresponding average figures for manufacturing are 4.3% (weekly), 7.0% (hourly) and a decrease of 2.6% (hours worked).

The earnings of all employees in the industrial sector rose by 6.0% in the year to June 2002. This rise consists of increases of 6.3% for Industrial Employees and 5.2% for Clerical and Managerial Employees combined.

According to the latest CSO release, average weekly earnings for all workers in the Construction sector increased by 10.7% in the year to June 2002 - the hourly rate increased by 12.9% while the number of hours worked decreased by 1.8%. Average hourly earnings of skilled operatives increased by 12.5% while average hourly earnings of unskilled/semi-skilled workers increased by 14.3% in the same period.

The CSO Statistical Release, Banking, Insurance and Building Societies: Employment and Earnings, indicates that average weekly earnings in the financial sector rose by 9.6% in the year to March 2002, comprising increases of 14.4% in the banking sector, 28.8% for building societies and a decrease of 4.0% for insurance.

The latest CSO figures show that average weekly earnings in the Public Sector (excluding health) increased by 7.1% in the year to March 2002.

The latest CSO release indicates that average weekly earnings in the distribution and business services sector increased by 2.9% in the year to June 2002. Average weekly earnings in the distribution sector increased by 4.2% while those in the business services sector rose by 2.3% over the same period.

The latest CSO figures show that the Consumer Price Index for September was 4.5%, unchanged from August. Excluding mortgage interest rates, the underlying CPI was 5.0%. The CPI, excluding tobacco, was 4.4% for the same period.

As measured by the EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), Ireland’s y-o-y inflation rate was also 4.5% in September, again unchanged. The EU15 average HICP rate for September was 1.9%, and the Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (MUICP) rate for the euro zone was 2.1%.

Manufacturing Output Prices

In September 2002 manufacturing output prices increased by 0.3% y-o-y. The prices for home sales were up by 2.2% y-o-y, with export sales down by 0.6% y-o-y.

The EURIBOR one-month interbank rate at end of October was 3.30%, down from 3.32% at the end of September, while the EURIBOR three-month interbank interest rate at end of October was 3.26%, down from 3.30% at end of September. Ten-year Irish Government bonds traded at 30 October at a yield of 4.76%, compared to 4.55% for the equivalent German Government bonds. The European Central Bank’s Repo rate at end of October was 3.25%.

Department of the Environment and Local Government figures show that the average price of new houses in 2001 rose by 8.1% to €182,863 while the average price of second-hand houses rose by 8.2% to €206,117. In Dublin, average new house prices rose by 9.6% to €243,095, while average second-hand house prices rose by 8.5% to €267,939.

In the second quarter 2002, average new house prices rose by 4.9% y-o-y to €196,905 while average second-hand house prices rose by 6.6% to €227,063. In the same period, average new house prices in Dublin increased by 1.0% y-o-y to €252,657 while average second-hand house prices in Dublin increased by 6.4% to €297,723.

In the month of August 2002, the volume of sales increased by 1.2% y-o-y, with non-garage sales recording an increase of 4.8%. The volume increase in sales in the January - August period over the same period in 2001 was 1.1% while the corresponding figure for non-garage sales was 3.1%. The volume increase in sales in 2001 was 3.1% compared to an increase of 11.9% in 2000. The corresponding figure for non-garage sales was 7.5% compared to an increase of 8.9% in 2000.

Data from the Revenue Commissioners indicates that new car registrations in September 2002 were 14.1% higher than September last year while sales of imported used cars in September 2002 were 1.9% higher than September last year. Cumulative sales of new cars for Jan. - September 2002 showed a y-o-y decrease of 5.6% while cumulative sales of imported used cars fell by 17%.

Manufacturing output increased by 13% y-o-y in July 2002 and the CSO provisionally estimate that output increased by 10% y-o-y in August 2002. According to CSO data, manufacturing output volume for 2001 was 10.2% higher than for 2000. This follows an increase of 15.7% for 2000.

The value of exports in the month of August decreased by 6.8% y-o-y. Details of exports for the January - July period show that, in value terms, office machines decreased by 1.9% y-o-y, medical & pharmaceutical products increased by 63.5%, electrical machinery exports fell by 10.6% and exports of organic chemicals increased by 11.6%. Exports of food and live animals grew by 1.0% in value over the same period.

According to CSO figures, there were 6,081,000 overseas visitors to Ireland in 2001, a decrease of 5.1% over 2000. The number of visits abroad by Irish residents was 4,250,000 in 2001, compared with 3,811,000 in 2000, an increase of 11.5%. Earnings from visitors to Ireland in 2001 amounted to €3,960 million, an increase of 8% over 2000. Expenditure by Irish visitors abroad amounted to €2,971 million, an increase of 10% over 2000.

In the first quarter of 2002, there were 1,147,000 overseas visitors to Ireland, compared with 1,040,000 in the same period last year, an increase of 10.3%. The number of visits abroad by Irish residents in Q1 2002 was 901,000 an increase of 17.5% when compared with the first quarter of 2001.

The CSO release Output, Input and Income in Agriculture indicates that gross agricultural output at basic prices increased by 0.5% in 2001. This follows an increase of 5.1% in 2000.

The same CSO release shows that aggregate farm incomes grew by 4.2% in 2001 as a result of an increase in the output value of pigs, sheep, milk, and root crops. This follows an increase in farm incomes of 8.6% in 2000.

Information on Budget 2002 is available on the Department of Finance website.

Details of forthcoming statistical releases, including the IMF’s advance calendar can be found at http://www.imf.org/country/irl/calacal.htm

Queries and comments to: Sue Blood or Antoinette Talbot, Department of Finance, 73-79 Lower Mount Street, Dublin 2.

Phone (01) 6045769 or (01) 6045788, or e-mail: Sue_Blood@finance.irlgov.ie  or Antoinette_Talbot@finance.irlgov.ie

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